july-2012-National

NATIONAL AFFAIRS

India’s poor progress in population stabilisation
The Annual Health Survey (AHS), 2011, reveals India’s poor progress in population stabilisation. It also questions target delivery under the multi-crore National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) that is supposed to meet contraception needs of women. It shows that one in five women in the country’s nine high population States has no access to contraceptives though they need these.

Resultantly, in six of the eight high population States, women continue to bear more than three children each. Total Fertility Rate (average number of children born to a woman during her reproductive lifespan) is higher than the national average of 2.5 in these six States. Uttarakhand and Odisha are exceptions with 2.3 TFR each. The rest of the States have higher TFRs than the national average of 2.5—Bihar (3.7), UP (3.6); Rajasthan (3.2), Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh (3.1 each); Chhattisgarh (2.9) and Assam (2.6).

The Annual Health Survey covered 20.1 million persons in 284 districts and gives data for 161 indicators, including child marriage and abortion. It found child marriage rampant—every 4th marriage of women in rural Rajasthan and every 5th in Bihar and Jharkhand is before the legal age of 18. Only 20 of the 284 districts in high population States have so far met population stabilisation goals.

RBI’s First Quarter Review 2012-13
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), on July 30, 2012, said that the outlook for the Indian economy remained weak, indicated by lowered growth projections by professional forecasters and external agencies.

“In an uncertain global economic environment, factors like the interplay between growth slowdown, high inflation, wide current account, fiscal gaps and falling investment have weakened the economy,” said RBI in its Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments First Quarter Review 2012-13.

The central bank said various surveys of business expectations confirmed confidence levels are low. It pointed out that the NCAER Business Confidence Index, which registered an improvement in business environment during April 2012, slid back during July 2012.

Similarly, it noted that the Dun & Bradstreet Business Optimism Index for July-September 2012, conducted in June 2012, indicated increased pessimism, with a quarter-on-quarter decline in volume of sales, net profits, new orders, inventory and employee levels.

RBI said the revised gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate for 2011-12 at 6.5 per cent had come in sharply lower than the conservative estimates by external agencies (7.0-7.6 per cent). Stuttering global growth and domestic concerns on multiple fronts—including weak Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth momentum, persistent inflation, and high fiscal and current account deficits—have led to further downward revisions in the growth outlook for 2012-13 by 0.2-0.8 percentage points.

The RBI’s Consumer Confidence Survey, conducted in June 2012, also indicated that though the majority of respondents perceive current household circumstances to have improved, there has been a rise in the proportion of respondents reporting otherwise. This led to a fall in consumer confidence for the current period.

Further, RBI’s Industrial Outlook Survey, conducted during the first quarter of 2012-13, showed deterioration in business sentiments, both in the assessment quarter first and the expectations quarter second of 2012-13.

RBI further pointed that the Business Expectation Index, a composite indicator based on several business parameters, also showed moderation for assessment (first quarter of 2012-13) and expectation (second quarter of 2012-13) quarters. RBI said though the industry and service sector median growth forecasts have turned low, they are expected to pick up from the beginning of the second quarter of 2012-13.

Visit of Prime Minister of Singapore
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh assured his Singapore counterpart Lee Hsien Loong of India’s commitment to reinforce its status as an investment-friendly destination as the two countries signed three accords, including one for the conduct of joint military training and exercises in India, on July 11, 2012, during Lee’s State visit to India.

The other agreements between signed were on facilitating cooperation in the field of vocational education and skills development and on the setting up of a Greenfield world class skills development center in Delhi to provide state-of-the-art facility for skills development.